Tuesday, November 10, 2015

2014-15 NBA Early Season Forecast

After an interesting offseason, I'm happy to see the NBA regular season kick off. For the 6th straight season, the anticipation of the upcoming season is filled with great storylines, high expectations for contending teams & the usual 3-hour argument of how the Western Conference playoff picture will play out during the season. Most of the Western powers made moves during the summer in order to go after the defending NBA champs Golden State Warriors, the biggest winner of this arms race being the San Antonio Spurs. In the grand scheme of things, we can see another scenario of 8 50-win teams & a 1st round “upset”.

In my opinion, The Eastern Conference has had parody for the last several seasons, but they have more bad luck when it comes to injuries than the Western Conference. The 9th, 10th & 11th seeds might not be over .500 out East, but there's always the possibility those teams can be in position to fight for a playoff spot after the halfway point of the season, if they stay healthy.

For last year's season preview, I went into detail about the moves that each team made and what factors had to play a part in order for them to have a successful season. I gave each team an over/under as to how many wins that they have to get in order to have a successful season. This year, I'm doing the same thing, but we're cutting right to the chase. A few hits and misses notwithstanding, my predictions are pretty accurate. This season, the over/under has a 3 to 4 win margin of error so I'll be keeping a close eye on as the season progresses. The order in which the teams are listed in their respective divisions, are based off their offseason moves, and where I think they're ranked as we begin to 2015-2016 campaign.

Also included are postseason award projections. All are subject to change as the season progresses.

Eastern Conference
Atlantic Divison
Toronto Raptors: 48 wins
Boston Celtics: 45 wins
New York Knicks: 43 wins
Brooklyn Nets: 41 wins
Philadelphia 76ers: 19 wins

Central Division
Cleveland Cavaliers: 60 wins
Chicago Bulls: 54 wins
Milwaukee Bucks: 46 wins
Indiana Pacers: 45 wins
Detroit Pistons: 38 wins

Southeast Division
Miami Heat: 52 wins
Atlanta Hawks: 50 wins
Washington Wizards: 47 wins
Charlotte Hornets: 39 wins
Orlando Magic: 36 wins

Western Conference
Southwest Division
San Antonio Spurs: 57 wins
Houston Rockets: 55 wins
Memphis Grizzlies: 50 wins
New Orleans Pelicans: 46 wins
Dallas Mavericks: 45 wins

Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors: 57 wins
Los Angeles Clippers: 55 wins
Phoenix Suns: 45 wins
Sacramento Kings: 42 wins
Los Angeles Lakers: 35 wins

Northwest Division
Oklahoma City Thunder: 56 wins
Utah Jazz: 45 wins
Denver Nuggets: 38 wins
Portland Trail Blazers: 37 wins
Minnesota Timberwolves: 37 wins

Predictions
MVP: LeBron James, Cavs
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis, Pelicans
Rookie of the Year: Karl Anthony Towns, Timberwolves
Sixth Man of the Year: Andre Igoudala, Warriors
Most Improved Player: Andre Drummond, Pistons
Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens, Celtics

Sleeper Team (East): Miami Heat
Sleeper Team (West): Utah Jazz