2014-15 NBA Early Season Forecast

After an interesting offseason, I'm happy to see the NBA regular season kick off. For the 6th straight season, the anticipation of the upcoming season is filled with great storylines, high expectations for contending teams & the usual 3-hour argument of how the Western Conference playoff picture will play out during the season. Most of the Western powers made moves during the summer in order to go after the defending NBA champs Golden State Warriors, the biggest winner of this arms race being the San Antonio Spurs. In the grand scheme of things, we can see another scenario of 8 50-win teams & a 1st round “upset”.

In my opinion, The Eastern Conference has had parody for the last several seasons, but they have more bad luck when it comes to injuries than the Western Conference. The 9th, 10th & 11th seeds might not be over .500 out East, but there's always the possibility those teams can be in position to fight for a playoff spot after the halfway point of the season, if they stay healthy.

For last year's season preview, I went into detail about the moves that each team made and what factors had to play a part in order for them to have a successful season. I gave each team an over/under as to how many wins that they have to get in order to have a successful season. This year, I'm doing the same thing, but we're cutting right to the chase. A few hits and misses notwithstanding, my predictions are pretty accurate. This season, the over/under has a 3 to 4 win margin of error so I'll be keeping a close eye on as the season progresses. The order in which the teams are listed in their respective divisions, are based off their offseason moves, and where I think they're ranked as we begin to 2015-2016 campaign.

Also included are postseason award projections. All are subject to change as the season progresses.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Divison

Toronto Raptors: 48 wins

Boston Celtics: 45 wins

New York Knicks: 43 wins

Brooklyn Nets: 41 wins

Philadelphia 76ers: 19 wins

Central Division

Cleveland Cavaliers: 60 wins

Chicago Bulls: 54 wins

Milwaukee Bucks: 46 wins

Indiana Pacers: 45 wins

Detroit Pistons: 38 wins

Southeast Division

Miami Heat: 52 wins

Atlanta Hawks: 50 wins

Washington Wizards: 47 wins

Charlotte Hornets: 39 wins

Orlando Magic: 36 wins

Western Conference

Southwest Division

San Antonio Spurs: 57 wins

Houston Rockets: 55 wins

Memphis Grizzlies: 50 wins

New Orleans Pelicans: 46 wins

Dallas Mavericks: 45 wins

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors: 57 wins

Los Angeles Clippers: 55 wins

Phoenix Suns: 45 wins

Sacramento Kings: 42 wins

Los Angeles Lakers: 35 wins

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder: 56 wins

Utah Jazz: 45 wins

Denver Nuggets: 38 wins

Portland Trail Blazers: 37 wins

Minnesota Timberwolves: 37 wins

Predictions

MVP: LeBron James, Cavs

Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis, Pelicans

Rookie of the Year: Karl Anthony Towns, Timberwolves

Sixth Man of the Year: Andre Igoudala, Warriors

Most Improved Player: Andre Drummond, Pistons

Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens, Celtics

Sleeper Team (East): Miami Heat

Sleeper Team (West): Utah Jazz

2014-15 NBA Preview: Southwest Division

Southwest Division

1.       San Antonio

They’re the champs. And whoever wants to hold the Larry O’Brien trophy, they have to go thru the Spurs. While all their conference foes retweaked their rosters with new players, the Spurs stood pat this summer, bringing back the entire championship team from last year. Duncan & Manu are back along with Tony Parker, Kawai Leonard is gonna be a stud, and the role players will contribute & compete regardless of who’s on the floor & who they’re playing against. With the way they move the ball & hit the 3, along with their defensive consistency, it’s hard to see them finishing below No. 3 in the West & No. 5 overall in the league. Mind you, Popovich & Co. Have never repeated, so this can be a motivating factor once they get to the home stretch & realize they’re in the top 3 out West.

Over/Under: 55 wins

2.       Houston

So, the Harden & Howard experiment is past the trial stage. Last year, they were kinda feeling each other out & not trying to step on each other’s toes. Despite losing to a Portland squad led by LaMarcus Aldridge & Damien Lillard, and losing Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin & Omer Asik means the young guys like Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas & Isaiah Canaan will have to grow up quick & contribute. Trevor Ariza & Jason Terry should provide them with some veteran savvy, while all eyes are on Patrick Beverly to see if he is capable of playing major minutes as a starting point guard. Hakeem Olajuwon has came out & said that Dwight Howard will have an MVP-caliber year, and from what I've seen from Dwight in the pre-season, he looks ready to carry his weight along with Harden to take this team deep into the postseason.

Over/Under: 50 wins

3.       Dallas

On paper, they don’t look too far off from the team that won the championship in 2011. I’ll even say that they may be better than that 2011 squad. They got Tyson back in the middle; they still got Dirk Nowitzki, who still has plenty left in the tank & doesn't have to worry about carrying the offensive burden, thanks to Monta Ellis being able to get a shot anytime he feels like it. Ever since arriving in Dallas, Monta has shot a higher percentage,complementing that with better shot selection, which creates a next-level dimension on offense for the Mavs. Chandler Parson will get the same amount of good looks he got in Houston because the offense is THAT good. Their depth at point guard & forward gives them the flexibility to make adjustments to any style they encounter. They play in the deepest division in the most competitive conference in sports, yet they still can win 50 games & make a run if all goes smoothly.

Over/Under: 50 wins

4.       Memphis

In the Eastern Conference, they’re a legit 2 seed, 3 at worst. But they’re in the Southwest Division, where the division runs thru Texas. And with Anthony Davis & an ever-improving supporting cast down in New Orleans looking to make a playoff push this year, the Memphis Grizzlies are in a position to continue the run they had last year after coming out the gate sputtering. If Zach Randolph doesn’t get suspended for Game 7 vs OKC, the series could go either way. Not having Quincy Pondexter at full strength hurt them as well. He should return to his old form this year, and the addition of Vince Cater should offset the loss of Mike Miller & Jerryd Bayless. They have backcourt depth, to go with Mark Gasol & Z-Bo upfront. They will be competitive & make the playoffs, without a doubt. They just have to put themselves in a position where they can get a favorable matchup heading into the 1^st round. With the depth of the West, any team from 1 thru 8 can beat each other in a playoff series, so we’ll see what happens.

Over/Under: 50 wins

5.       New Orleans

SLAM Magazine ranked Anthony Davis as the 4^th best player in the NBA heading into the 2014-15 season. If you seen his progress from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign, this wouldn’t be a hard sell. If he continues to improve at this rate, he’ll have the Pelicans in the mix for a playoff spot. They have Jrue Holiday, Eric Gorden & Tyreke Evans to take pressure off him, so he doesn’t have to carry the scoring load every night. He has Omer Asik up front with him, so he’ll be able to flex more on defense, as well as have more space to operate on offense. With Ryan Anderson’s ability to stretch the floor, New Orleans can be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. The only things that can set them back (barring injuries to any of the guys I named) is their lack of a bench & playing in the deepest cdivision in the deepest conference in sports. If all goes right, they can push for an 8^th seed & get it.

Over/Under: 45 wins