2014-15 NBA Early Season Forecast

After an interesting offseason, I'm happy to see the NBA regular season kick off. For the 6th straight season, the anticipation of the upcoming season is filled with great storylines, high expectations for contending teams & the usual 3-hour argument of how the Western Conference playoff picture will play out during the season. Most of the Western powers made moves during the summer in order to go after the defending NBA champs Golden State Warriors, the biggest winner of this arms race being the San Antonio Spurs. In the grand scheme of things, we can see another scenario of 8 50-win teams & a 1st round “upset”.

In my opinion, The Eastern Conference has had parody for the last several seasons, but they have more bad luck when it comes to injuries than the Western Conference. The 9th, 10th & 11th seeds might not be over .500 out East, but there's always the possibility those teams can be in position to fight for a playoff spot after the halfway point of the season, if they stay healthy.

For last year's season preview, I went into detail about the moves that each team made and what factors had to play a part in order for them to have a successful season. I gave each team an over/under as to how many wins that they have to get in order to have a successful season. This year, I'm doing the same thing, but we're cutting right to the chase. A few hits and misses notwithstanding, my predictions are pretty accurate. This season, the over/under has a 3 to 4 win margin of error so I'll be keeping a close eye on as the season progresses. The order in which the teams are listed in their respective divisions, are based off their offseason moves, and where I think they're ranked as we begin to 2015-2016 campaign.

Also included are postseason award projections. All are subject to change as the season progresses.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Divison

Toronto Raptors: 48 wins

Boston Celtics: 45 wins

New York Knicks: 43 wins

Brooklyn Nets: 41 wins

Philadelphia 76ers: 19 wins

Central Division

Cleveland Cavaliers: 60 wins

Chicago Bulls: 54 wins

Milwaukee Bucks: 46 wins

Indiana Pacers: 45 wins

Detroit Pistons: 38 wins

Southeast Division

Miami Heat: 52 wins

Atlanta Hawks: 50 wins

Washington Wizards: 47 wins

Charlotte Hornets: 39 wins

Orlando Magic: 36 wins

Western Conference

Southwest Division

San Antonio Spurs: 57 wins

Houston Rockets: 55 wins

Memphis Grizzlies: 50 wins

New Orleans Pelicans: 46 wins

Dallas Mavericks: 45 wins

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors: 57 wins

Los Angeles Clippers: 55 wins

Phoenix Suns: 45 wins

Sacramento Kings: 42 wins

Los Angeles Lakers: 35 wins

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder: 56 wins

Utah Jazz: 45 wins

Denver Nuggets: 38 wins

Portland Trail Blazers: 37 wins

Minnesota Timberwolves: 37 wins

Predictions

MVP: LeBron James, Cavs

Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis, Pelicans

Rookie of the Year: Karl Anthony Towns, Timberwolves

Sixth Man of the Year: Andre Igoudala, Warriors

Most Improved Player: Andre Drummond, Pistons

Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens, Celtics

Sleeper Team (East): Miami Heat

Sleeper Team (West): Utah Jazz

2014-15 NBA Division Preview: Northwest Division

Northwest Division

1.   Oklahoma City Thunder

Before Kevin Duran’t toe injury & Russell Westbrook’s fractured hand, the Thunder were primed to be a Top 3 team in the West, top5 in the league overall, as they looked to get past the injury bug that derailed them from getting back to the Finals in the last two years. Reggie Jackson being out doesn’t help things either. Jeremy Lamb is out with a bad back. Rookie 1^st rounder Mitch McGary is out with a broken foot. New acquisition Anthony Morrow is also sidelined with an injury. The injury bug has made himself comfortable in Oklahoma City, and it’ll be up to Serge Ibaka & the young reserves to hold down the fort until KD& Westbrook come back. In the unforgiving Western Conference, OKC will be laying catch up for the rest of the season when they get the whole team intact. It may or may not cost them home court advantage in the playoffs, it remains to bee seen. Scott Brooks has his biggest challenge as a coach thus far. He has his work cut out for him. OKC may be the most dangerous below 4 seed we’ve seen out the West in some time. Getting back to the Conference Finals should get Brooks Coach Of The Year.

Over/Under: 53 wins

2.   Portland Trailblazers

LaMarcus Aldridge is a free agent after this season. Rip City shouldn’t worry much about that, because he’s re-signing with them. Why wouldn’t he? Leave all that big market talk out of this & look at what he comes back to. Damien Lillard, who made his 1^st All-Star game in his sophomore campaign after winning Rookie Of The Year. Nic Batum, a do-everything SF who’s STILL getting better. Solid as a rock Wes Matthews. Defensive stalwart Robin Lopez. Dorrell Wright & Thomas Robinson, along with picking up Chris Kaman & Steve Blake to provide them additional depth. CJ McCollum & Myles Leanord may or may not come around this year, we’ll see. Terry Stotts has a full ouse to play with, and Portland is looking to become a Top 10 team defensively in order to get to the next level. Scoring isn’t a problem with these guys, they’re more than capable of sustaining their offensive production. It’s on the defensive end for them, if they want to get to the next level.

Over/Under: 53 wins

3.   Denver Nuggets

Injuries a re the main reason the Nuggets looked so mediocre last season. Missing key players for most of the season, the team never had a chance to gel. They have depth, athleticism, defense, and just enough shooting to make teams play them honest every night. Ty Lawson is the engine that makes them go. Kenneth Faried showed out this summer playing for the US Men’s National Team in Spain. He’s been improving since he got into the league, so expect him to continue that trend heading into his 4^th season Danilo Galinari is 100% coming back from an ACL. JaVele McGee, Nate Robinson & JJ Hickson are all coming back from season ending injuries. All this means is that Denver will be at full strength, being able to push the ball in transition, have a balanced attack, Play solid defense, and boast one of the league’s better second units. I got Wilson Chandler being a Sixth Man Of The Year candidate early out the gate. They won 36 games despite being shorthanded. They will definetly be better this year, IF they can stay health.

Over/Under: 46 wins

4.   Utah Jazz

The Jazz are basically a blank slate. They’ve been rebuilding via the draft & trades these last several season, and one should give them props for compiling such a good group of young players to build a contending team with. Dream scenario for 1^st year coach Quinn Synder, who gets to use this balnk slate to implement his system & change the culture in Utah. Pushing the ball, spreading the floor, moving the ball & playing hard on both ends makes perfect sense with the youth on their roster. Gordon Hayward is th ealpha dog of this group, thanks in large part to the extension he signed during the summer. He’s going to be asked to take on a leadership role& bring it every night. Derrick Favors & Enes Kanter gotta find a way to give each other space to operate. Once they figure that out, they’ll be fun to watch. Alec Burks, Trey Burke & Dante Exum are gonna be a fun, tough, athletic 3-guard rotation (though we may see plenty of turnovers). Rudy Gobert has alot of spectators curious after showing flashes in international play this summer. Overall, the growing pains will be present, but if they buy in, play hard & compete, the kids will be alright.

Over/Under: 34 wins

5.   Minnesota Timberwolves

You couldn’t ask more of Kevin Love in his time in Minnesota. His gaudy numbers wasn’t enough to get the Timberwolves in the playoffs in the Wild West. Now that he’s moved on to Cleveland, everything is on Ricky Rubio to lead this squad out of the doldrums they’ve been in for the last 10 seasons. New acquisition Thaddeus Young joins a team that has a blend of youth, athleticism, and veterans like Kevin Martin, Chase Budinger, Nikola Pekovic, JJ Barea & Corey Brewer. Getting Andrew Wiggins & Antony Bennett in the Love trade to go along with their lottery pick Zach LaVine & their second rounder Glenn Robinson III. Gorgui Dieng & Shabazz Muhammed may also push for more minutes this year, as they showed signs of being nightly contributors, especially Dieng. Flip Saunders has to figure out how to stay competitive, while developing the younger guys. Wiggins is the future, so his development will play into how Minnesota move going forward.

Over/Under: 30 wins

2014-15 NBA Division Preview: Pacific Division

Pacific Division

1.    Los Angeles Clippers

It was only a matter of time before Donald Sterling got exposed for the racist bigot that he is. This was a well known fact in close NBA circles, as well as among die hard hoop lifers. Banning him for life from the game, even though he gets to cash out, is bittersweet justice. There’s no place for racism & discrimination in the NBA or in the game of basketball. I’m happy to see the Clippers move on & focus on strictly basketball. For the first time in the history of their franchise, they’re legitimate championship contenders, and for the first time since they moved to California, they’re the best basketball team in the state. Blake Griffin & Chris Paul are hungry to get out of the semifinals. The supporting cast are capable vets who are battle-tested (J.J. Reddick, Matt Barnes, Hedo Turkolou, Big Baby Davis, Jordan Farmer). They’re not scared to step up, make big shots, cross your soul into the next dimension (Jamal Crawford) & dunk on you so hard, your ancestors pour libations for the victims (DeAndre Jordan). Chris Douglas-Roberts fill the eccentric quota for the team. And they have the best coach in the NBA not named Greg Popovich (Doc Rivers). Their window of opportunity isn't gonna get any wider, so the time is now for these guys to win.

Over/Under: 55 wins

2.   Golden State Warriors

Steph Curry is the best shooter in the league. No question. He’s so good, opposing players who are assigned to guard him go right to his doorstep as soon as they get off the plane. They tell their teammate “Make sure his mans (Klay Thompson) don’t get off. I’ma meet Steph by his mailbox.” That won't help much, because both are willing passers. It opens up the floor for Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes & Draymond Green. A healthy Andrew Bogut complementing David Lee & Marreese Speights goes a long way Though, I don’t agree with the firing of Mark Jackson (front office drama, according to sources), nobody can deny that he did an amazing job at getting the Warriors to contender status, leaving Steve Kerr to take what he built to the next level. Kerr, even with his lack of coaching experience, understands the game, and I think he’s capable enough to get these guys in a position to play well into May.

Over/Under: 52 wins

3.    Phoenix Suns

They surprised everybody. I expected them to have an identical record as the 76ers, off the strength they played in the West. Move them East, they’re tied for third with Chicago, with home court advantage in the first two rounds. Instead, they satyed in the playoff hunt all season & stomped a mudhole into the low expectations everybody had for them last season. Their offense was dynamic, they gave an honest effort on the defensive end, and they were such a joy to watch. Goran Dragic & Eric Bledsoe were just out there ballin’. The Morris twins (Markis & Markeiff) made huge contributions. Gerald Green looked impressive & should be the starting 3 for the foreseeable future. P.J. Tucker emerged as a relaible glue guy. Miles Plumlee fits in perfectly with these uptempo Suns at center. Now add IsaiahThomas to that Dragic/Bledsoe? Matchup nightmare that should keep Jeff Hornacek’s offense in high gear for 48 minutes. They play with a good balance, but like with the Raptors out East, they won’t be sneaking up on anyone, so they’ll have to compete on a much higher level if they want to crack into the top 8 in the talent-heavy West. Alex Len can help them out so much if he can manage to get healthy.

Over/Under: 45 wins

4.    Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers, throughout their history, have been known for reloading quickly. They haven’t missed the playoffs for no more than 5 years in a row & that’s also the same amount of time between superstars to build around. Kobe Bryant is 36 & his championship window looks closed, so it’s about the future for these Lakers. Julius Randle’s broken leg isn’t what they need now, as well as Steve Nash being out for the whole year. Kobe shouldn’t be expected to average 35 again, but expect him to everything in his power to make the Lakers competitive this year, with help from outcasts like Jeremy Lin, Ed Davis & amnestied Carlos Boozer. Nick Young maight be more under control this year, thanks to the Kobe Death Stare being in closer proximity. Wesley Johnson has all the tools to be a capable wing defender. Jordan Hill is another servicable big for them. After that, who knows? If Byron Scott can turn this into a .500 team by the end of the season, I’d put him in the running for Coach Of The Year.

Over/Under: 42 wins

5.    Sacramento Kings

I can easily go on record and say without hesitation that DeMarcus Cousins is the best center in the league not named Dwight Howard (when he’s motivated & engaged). Besides questions about his attitude , it’s more or less the pieces around him that result in the losses piling up. They’ve had alot of individual talent in Sac-Town over the years, but it hasn’t translated into wins. The Sacramentio Kings of the early ‘00s were a fun brand of basketball, moving the ball unselfishly, playing for each other & were a few suspect call against them away from an NBA Finals apperance. Can Mike Malone get them to play as a cohesive unit? He’ll have to rely on Cousins & Rudy Gay to carry the scoring load. Newcomers Darren Colison & Ramon Sessions gives them stability at the point. Ben McLemore & Nik Stauskas will be duking it out for the starting SG spot, which right now, might be the best position battle in the league (my humble opinion). CJ McCallum should get some looks as well. If all works out for them, they might have a shot….at winning 40 games.

Over/Under: 32 wins

2014-15 NBA Preview: Southwest Division

Southwest Division

1.       San Antonio

They’re the champs. And whoever wants to hold the Larry O’Brien trophy, they have to go thru the Spurs. While all their conference foes retweaked their rosters with new players, the Spurs stood pat this summer, bringing back the entire championship team from last year. Duncan & Manu are back along with Tony Parker, Kawai Leonard is gonna be a stud, and the role players will contribute & compete regardless of who’s on the floor & who they’re playing against. With the way they move the ball & hit the 3, along with their defensive consistency, it’s hard to see them finishing below No. 3 in the West & No. 5 overall in the league. Mind you, Popovich & Co. Have never repeated, so this can be a motivating factor once they get to the home stretch & realize they’re in the top 3 out West.

Over/Under: 55 wins

2.       Houston

So, the Harden & Howard experiment is past the trial stage. Last year, they were kinda feeling each other out & not trying to step on each other’s toes. Despite losing to a Portland squad led by LaMarcus Aldridge & Damien Lillard, and losing Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin & Omer Asik means the young guys like Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas & Isaiah Canaan will have to grow up quick & contribute. Trevor Ariza & Jason Terry should provide them with some veteran savvy, while all eyes are on Patrick Beverly to see if he is capable of playing major minutes as a starting point guard. Hakeem Olajuwon has came out & said that Dwight Howard will have an MVP-caliber year, and from what I've seen from Dwight in the pre-season, he looks ready to carry his weight along with Harden to take this team deep into the postseason.

Over/Under: 50 wins

3.       Dallas

On paper, they don’t look too far off from the team that won the championship in 2011. I’ll even say that they may be better than that 2011 squad. They got Tyson back in the middle; they still got Dirk Nowitzki, who still has plenty left in the tank & doesn't have to worry about carrying the offensive burden, thanks to Monta Ellis being able to get a shot anytime he feels like it. Ever since arriving in Dallas, Monta has shot a higher percentage,complementing that with better shot selection, which creates a next-level dimension on offense for the Mavs. Chandler Parson will get the same amount of good looks he got in Houston because the offense is THAT good. Their depth at point guard & forward gives them the flexibility to make adjustments to any style they encounter. They play in the deepest division in the most competitive conference in sports, yet they still can win 50 games & make a run if all goes smoothly.

Over/Under: 50 wins

4.       Memphis

In the Eastern Conference, they’re a legit 2 seed, 3 at worst. But they’re in the Southwest Division, where the division runs thru Texas. And with Anthony Davis & an ever-improving supporting cast down in New Orleans looking to make a playoff push this year, the Memphis Grizzlies are in a position to continue the run they had last year after coming out the gate sputtering. If Zach Randolph doesn’t get suspended for Game 7 vs OKC, the series could go either way. Not having Quincy Pondexter at full strength hurt them as well. He should return to his old form this year, and the addition of Vince Cater should offset the loss of Mike Miller & Jerryd Bayless. They have backcourt depth, to go with Mark Gasol & Z-Bo upfront. They will be competitive & make the playoffs, without a doubt. They just have to put themselves in a position where they can get a favorable matchup heading into the 1^st round. With the depth of the West, any team from 1 thru 8 can beat each other in a playoff series, so we’ll see what happens.

Over/Under: 50 wins

5.       New Orleans

SLAM Magazine ranked Anthony Davis as the 4^th best player in the NBA heading into the 2014-15 season. If you seen his progress from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign, this wouldn’t be a hard sell. If he continues to improve at this rate, he’ll have the Pelicans in the mix for a playoff spot. They have Jrue Holiday, Eric Gorden & Tyreke Evans to take pressure off him, so he doesn’t have to carry the scoring load every night. He has Omer Asik up front with him, so he’ll be able to flex more on defense, as well as have more space to operate on offense. With Ryan Anderson’s ability to stretch the floor, New Orleans can be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. The only things that can set them back (barring injuries to any of the guys I named) is their lack of a bench & playing in the deepest cdivision in the deepest conference in sports. If all goes right, they can push for an 8^th seed & get it.

Over/Under: 45 wins

2014-15 Preseason NBA Rankings

The season starts in less than 7 days. While we're waiting for the opening tip, I've analyzed the off-season moves & personnel changes for all 30 teams. This right here is where I rank them coming out the gate. Some teams may fall, some teams may rise, depending on the ebb & tide of the season. The East is wide open, thanks to LeBron James shifting the power of the conference once again by heading back home to Cleveland. Expecting the Cavs to win it all in their first year might be a stretch, but it wouldn't surprise me much if they did. Because it's their 1st year together, it opens up the door in the East for teams like the Bulls, Wizards, Knicks, Nets, Raptors, Hornets & Hawks to make a push to challenge for the East crown. I expect Cleveland & Chicago to fight for the top seed all year long, while 3-8 will be the street fight it usually tends to be in the Eastern Conference. 

Meanwhile, In the Western Conference,  the key word is depth. The Suns won 48 games last season and still missed the playoffs. I expect the same thing this year, with all 8 playoff teams having enough talent & star power to win 50 games during the regular season. It's going to come down to 7 teams fighting for two spots as the regular season winds down. Kevin Durant being out for the 1st month of the season puts Oklahoma City in a position where they can get behind early in the standings, which gives teams like the Clippers, the Rockets, Blazers, Grizzles, Mavs & Warriors an opportunity to stake claim to one of the top two seeds in the conference (The other one goes to the Spurs, who I think will fall no lower than 3rd in the West this year).

No matter your preference, there's gonna be plenty of exciting basketball this season. Many teams will be competitive this year, which only makes me hyped to get the season underway...

Let me make it clear by saying that THESE ARE NOT PREDICTIONS ON WHERE THEY'LL FINISH IN THEIR CONFERENCE. THIS IS THEIR RANK HEADING INTO THE SEASON.

1. Cleveland

2. Chicago

3. New York

4. Brooklyn

5. Toronto

6. Charlotte

7. Washington

8. Atlanta

9. Miami

10. Detroit

11. Indiana

12. Milwaukee

13. Boston

14. Orlando

15. Philadelphia

1. San Antonio 

2. LA Clippers

3. Oklahoma City

4. Houston

5. Portland

6. Dallas

7. Golden State

8. Memphis

9. New Orleans

10. LA Lakers

11. Denver

12. Phoenix

13. Sacramento

14. Utah

15. Minnesota